| Estimate | Std. Error | 95% CI lower | 95% CI upper | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BSB North Mean Recruitment | 12573.496 | 3033.217 | 7836.336 | 20174.325 |
| BSB North NAA \(\sigma\) (age 1) | 0.940 | 0.129 | 0.718 | 1.231 |
| BSB North NAA \(\sigma\) (age 2) | 0.760 | 0.041 | 0.683 | 0.845 |
| REC CPA fully selected q | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| VAST Spring fully selected q | 0.013 | 0.002 | 0.010 | 0.016 |
| Block 1: Mean Selectivity for age 1 | 0.022 | 0.017 | 0.005 | 0.097 |
| Block 1: Mean Selectivity for age 2 | 0.322 | 0.171 | 0.093 | 0.687 |
| Block 1: Mean Selectivity for age 3 | 0.811 | 0.129 | 0.452 | 0.957 |
| Block 1: Mean Selectivity for age 4 | 1.000 | – | – | – |
| Block 1: Mean Selectivity for age 5 | 1.000 | – | – | – |
| Block 1: Mean Selectivity for age 6 | 1.000 | – | – | – |
| Block 1: Mean Selectivity for age 7 | 1.000 | – | – | – |
| Block 1: Mean Selectivity for age 8+ | 1.000 | – | – | – |
| Block 2: Mean Selectivity for age 1 | 0.033 | 0.031 | 0.005 | 0.187 |
| Block 2: Mean Selectivity for age 2 | 0.326 | 0.213 | 0.068 | 0.764 |
| Block 2: Mean Selectivity for age 3 | 0.563 | 0.241 | 0.160 | 0.898 |
| Block 2: Mean Selectivity for age 4 | 0.798 | 0.161 | 0.359 | 0.965 |
| Block 2: Mean Selectivity for age 5 | 0.902 | 0.091 | 0.548 | 0.986 |
| Block 2: Mean Selectivity for age 6 | 0.957 | 0.046 | 0.716 | 0.995 |
| Block 2: Mean Selectivity for age 7 | 1.000 | – | – | – |
| Block 2: Mean Selectivity for age 8+ | 1.000 | – | – | – |
| Block 3: Selectivity for age 1 | 0.500 | – | – | – |
| Block 3: Selectivity for age 2 | 0.500 | – | – | – |
| Block 3: Selectivity for age 3 | 0.500 | – | – | – |
| Block 3: Selectivity for age 4 | 0.500 | – | – | – |
| Block 3: Selectivity for age 5 | 0.500 | – | – | – |
| Block 3: Selectivity for age 6 | 0.500 | – | – | – |
| Block 3: Selectivity for age 7 | 0.500 | – | – | – |
| Block 3: Selectivity for age 8+ | 0.500 | – | – | – |
| Block 4: Selectivity for age 1 | 0.500 | – | – | – |
| Block 4: Selectivity for age 2 | 0.500 | – | – | – |
| Block 4: Selectivity for age 3 | 0.500 | – | – | – |
| Block 4: Selectivity for age 4 | 0.500 | – | – | – |
| Block 4: Selectivity for age 5 | 0.500 | – | – | – |
| Block 4: Selectivity for age 6 | 0.500 | – | – | – |
| Block 4: Selectivity for age 7 | 0.500 | – | – | – |
| Block 4: Selectivity for age 8+ | 0.500 | – | – | – |
| Block 5: Mean Selectivity for age 1 | 0.180 | 0.078 | 0.072 | 0.382 |
| Block 5: Mean Selectivity for age 2 | 1.000 | – | – | – |
| Block 5: Mean Selectivity for age 3 | 1.000 | – | – | – |
| Block 5: Mean Selectivity for age 4 | 1.000 | – | – | – |
| Block 5: Mean Selectivity for age 5 | 1.000 | – | – | – |
| Block 5: Mean Selectivity for age 6 | 1.000 | – | – | – |
| Block 5: Mean Selectivity for age 7 | 1.000 | – | – | – |
| Block 5: Mean Selectivity for age 8+ | 1.000 | – | – | – |
| Block 6: Mean Selectivity for age 1 | 0.083 | 0.031 | 0.039 | 0.167 |
| Block 6: Mean Selectivity for age 2 | 0.403 | 0.102 | 0.227 | 0.607 |
| Block 6: Mean Selectivity for age 3 | 0.901 | 0.068 | 0.671 | 0.976 |
| Block 6: Mean Selectivity for age 4 | 0.935 | 0.045 | 0.771 | 0.984 |
| Block 6: Mean Selectivity for age 5 | 1.000 | – | – | – |
| Block 6: Mean Selectivity for age 6 | 1.000 | – | – | – |
| Block 6: Mean Selectivity for age 7 | 1.000 | – | – | – |
| Block 6: Mean Selectivity for age 8+ | 1.000 | – | – | – |
| Block 1: Selectivity RE \(\sigma\) | 0.428 | 0.118 | 0.249 | 0.734 |
| Block 1: Selectivity RE AR1 \(\rho\) (age) | 0.473 | 0.139 | 0.336 | 0.936 |
| Block 1: Selectivity RE AR1 \(\rho\) (year) | 0.580 | 0.085 | 0.573 | 0.964 |
| Block 2: Selectivity RE \(\sigma\) | 0.216 | 0.030 | 0.164 | 0.285 |
| Block 2: Selectivity RE AR1 \(\rho\) (age) | 0.511 | 0.064 | 0.641 | 0.904 |
| Block 2: Selectivity RE AR1 \(\rho\) (year) | 0.740 | 0.023 | 0.880 | 0.984 |
| Block 5: Selectivity RE \(\sigma\) | 0.266 | 0.067 | 0.163 | 0.434 |
| Block 5: Selectivity RE AR1 \(\rho\) (year) | 0.665 | 0.076 | 0.545 | 0.989 |
| Block 6: Selectivity RE \(\sigma\) | 0.804 | 0.181 | 0.517 | 1.249 |
| Block 6: Selectivity RE AR1 \(\rho\) (age) | 0.126 | 0.224 | -0.211 | 0.618 |
| Block 6: Selectivity RE AR1 \(\rho\) (year) | 0.341 | 0.178 | 0.152 | 0.854 |
| Commercial in North age comp, Dirichlet-multinomial: dispersion (\(\phi\)) | 54.911 | 6.926 | 42.884 | 70.310 |
| Recreational in North age comp, logistic-normal: \(\sigma\) | 2.841 | 0.332 | 2.259 | 3.572 |
| REC CPA in North age comp, logistic-normal: \(\sigma\) | 3.971 | 0.379 | 3.294 | 4.787 |
| VAST Spring in North age comp, Dirichlet-multinomial: dispersion (\(\phi\)) | 29.288 | 3.604 | 23.012 | 37.276 |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1989 | 6445 | 3399 | 1602 | 734 | 335 | 153 | 69 | 58 |
| 1990 | 7136 | 2197 | 1719 | 326 | 189 | 22 | 4 | 36 |
| 1991 | 4998 | 3048 | 526 | 617 | 104 | 24 | 2 | 34 |
| 1992 | 3963 | 3731 | 263 | 83 | 258 | 26 | 10 | 99 |
| 1993 | 1723 | 1737 | 453 | 342 | 29 | 301 | 12 | 27 |
| 1994 | 15539 | 464 | 1509 | 144 | 182 | 18 | 39 | 21 |
| 1995 | 30058 | 2142 | 633 | 125 | 107 | 7 | 8 | 33 |
| 1996 | 30830 | 3969 | 754 | 192 | 45 | 84 | 9 | 13 |
| 1997 | 5234 | 12818 | 1043 | 217 | 63 | 16 | 30 | 10 |
| 1998 | 1986 | 3126 | 886 | 523 | 85 | 114 | 8 | 42 |
| 1999 | 45539 | 3194 | 953 | 467 | 178 | 94 | 31 | 20 |
| 2000 | 38913 | 7338 | 993 | 828 | 173 | 200 | 20 | 35 |
| 2001 | 11591 | 5097 | 3185 | 749 | 444 | 159 | 226 | 7 |
| 2002 | 23358 | 8933 | 4494 | 2082 | 232 | 76 | 85 | 32 |
| 2003 | 6981 | 4833 | 2422 | 1967 | 930 | 82 | 33 | 33 |
| 2004 | 3421 | 3227 | 5258 | 819 | 1219 | 318 | 3 | 22 |
| 2005 | 6100 | 3096 | 959 | 1387 | 588 | 461 | 107 | 34 |
| 2006 | 19976 | 5800 | 1478 | 1281 | 1510 | 223 | 294 | 2 |
| 2007 | 17250 | 8362 | 3321 | 839 | 545 | 573 | 251 | 36 |
| 2008 | 20958 | 9532 | 4098 | 1292 | 342 | 267 | 181 | 119 |
| 2009 | 21172 | 12318 | 6070 | 3875 | 942 | 67 | 28 | 153 |
| 2010 | 8027 | 8347 | 7987 | 4340 | 2544 | 370 | 18 | 22 |
| 2011 | 18991 | 7221 | 4739 | 3677 | 1404 | 890 | 119 | 19 |
| 2012 | 71667 | 18933 | 9504 | 4279 | 3266 | 1294 | 622 | 126 |
| 2013 | 28462 | 26923 | 5077 | 4239 | 2378 | 1528 | 470 | 285 |
| 2014 | 13242 | 13147 | 32189 | 5007 | 2743 | 1600 | 988 | 526 |
| 2015 | 12265 | 11952 | 9874 | 15869 | 2857 | 1288 | 646 | 622 |
| 2016 | 50116 | 18581 | 5533 | 5359 | 15950 | 1835 | 1159 | 809 |
| 2017 | 19589 | 37202 | 8296 | 3532 | 3413 | 9151 | 653 | 553 |
| 2018 | 5515 | 11222 | 18986 | 4217 | 1631 | 1956 | 5678 | 643 |
| 2019 | 21685 | 5924 | 11301 | 20004 | 3749 | 1526 | 1391 | 4708 |
| 2020 | 27481 | 13740 | 5189 | 9462 | 12437 | 2379 | 1176 | 3944 |
| 2021 | 23596 | 14993 | 13709 | 3868 | 5854 | 9947 | 1521 | 3956 |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1989 | 0.013 | 0.188 | 0.253 | 0.261 | 0.261 | 0.261 | 0.261 | 0.261 |
| 1990 | 0.008 | 0.193 | 0.431 | 0.464 | 0.464 | 0.464 | 0.464 | 0.464 |
| 1991 | 0.005 | 0.141 | 0.355 | 0.382 | 0.382 | 0.382 | 0.382 | 0.382 |
| 1992 | 0.008 | 0.186 | 0.326 | 0.340 | 0.340 | 0.340 | 0.340 | 0.340 |
| 1993 | 0.014 | 0.179 | 0.233 | 0.237 | 0.237 | 0.237 | 0.237 | 0.237 |
| 1994 | 0.009 | 0.200 | 0.316 | 0.327 | 0.327 | 0.327 | 0.327 | 0.327 |
| 1995 | 0.005 | 0.157 | 0.363 | 0.385 | 0.385 | 0.385 | 0.385 | 0.385 |
| 1996 | 0.004 | 0.134 | 0.689 | 0.787 | 0.787 | 0.787 | 0.787 | 0.787 |
| 1997 | 0.002 | 0.061 | 0.281 | 0.316 | 0.316 | 0.316 | 0.316 | 0.316 |
| 1998 | 0.002 | 0.093 | 0.387 | 0.438 | 0.438 | 0.438 | 0.438 | 0.438 |
| 1999 | 0.002 | 0.097 | 0.519 | 0.625 | 0.625 | 0.625 | 0.625 | 0.625 |
| 2000 | 0.002 | 0.069 | 0.204 | 0.236 | 0.236 | 0.236 | 0.236 | 0.236 |
| 2001 | 0.004 | 0.117 | 0.271 | 0.317 | 0.317 | 0.317 | 0.317 | 0.317 |
| 2002 | 0.003 | 0.061 | 0.199 | 0.299 | 0.299 | 0.299 | 0.299 | 0.299 |
| 2003 | 0.003 | 0.059 | 0.139 | 0.249 | 0.249 | 0.249 | 0.249 | 0.249 |
| 2004 | 0.002 | 0.043 | 0.128 | 0.372 | 0.372 | 0.372 | 0.372 | 0.372 |
| 2005 | 0.001 | 0.028 | 0.122 | 0.338 | 0.338 | 0.338 | 0.338 | 0.338 |
| 2006 | 0.001 | 0.025 | 0.112 | 0.264 | 0.264 | 0.264 | 0.264 | 0.264 |
| 2007 | 0.002 | 0.043 | 0.147 | 0.284 | 0.284 | 0.284 | 0.284 | 0.284 |
| 2008 | 0.002 | 0.023 | 0.098 | 0.164 | 0.164 | 0.164 | 0.164 | 0.164 |
| 2009 | 0.002 | 0.017 | 0.048 | 0.069 | 0.069 | 0.069 | 0.069 | 0.069 |
| 2010 | 0.002 | 0.016 | 0.046 | 0.066 | 0.066 | 0.066 | 0.066 | 0.066 |
| 2011 | 0.002 | 0.020 | 0.060 | 0.092 | 0.092 | 0.092 | 0.092 | 0.092 |
| 2012 | 0.001 | 0.010 | 0.035 | 0.060 | 0.060 | 0.060 | 0.060 | 0.060 |
| 2013 | 0.002 | 0.017 | 0.054 | 0.092 | 0.092 | 0.092 | 0.092 | 0.092 |
| 2014 | 0.002 | 0.015 | 0.041 | 0.071 | 0.071 | 0.071 | 0.071 | 0.071 |
| 2015 | 0.002 | 0.015 | 0.040 | 0.077 | 0.077 | 0.077 | 0.077 | 0.077 |
| 2016 | 0.002 | 0.013 | 0.036 | 0.078 | 0.078 | 0.078 | 0.078 | 0.078 |
| 2017 | 0.005 | 0.031 | 0.077 | 0.183 | 0.183 | 0.183 | 0.183 | 0.183 |
| 2018 | 0.008 | 0.041 | 0.080 | 0.156 | 0.156 | 0.156 | 0.156 | 0.156 |
| 2019 | 0.008 | 0.036 | 0.066 | 0.119 | 0.119 | 0.119 | 0.119 | 0.119 |
| 2020 | 0.008 | 0.030 | 0.056 | 0.106 | 0.106 | 0.106 | 0.106 | 0.106 |
| 2021 | 0.006 | 0.028 | 0.059 | 0.111 | 0.111 | 0.111 | 0.111 | 0.111 |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1989 | 0.013 | 0.188 | 0.253 | 0.261 | 0.261 | 0.261 | 0.261 | 0.261 |
| 1990 | 0.008 | 0.193 | 0.431 | 0.464 | 0.464 | 0.464 | 0.464 | 0.464 |
| 1991 | 0.005 | 0.141 | 0.355 | 0.382 | 0.382 | 0.382 | 0.382 | 0.382 |
| 1992 | 0.008 | 0.186 | 0.326 | 0.340 | 0.340 | 0.340 | 0.340 | 0.340 |
| 1993 | 0.014 | 0.179 | 0.233 | 0.237 | 0.237 | 0.237 | 0.237 | 0.237 |
| 1994 | 0.009 | 0.200 | 0.316 | 0.327 | 0.327 | 0.327 | 0.327 | 0.327 |
| 1995 | 0.005 | 0.157 | 0.363 | 0.385 | 0.385 | 0.385 | 0.385 | 0.385 |
| 1996 | 0.004 | 0.134 | 0.689 | 0.787 | 0.787 | 0.787 | 0.787 | 0.787 |
| 1997 | 0.002 | 0.061 | 0.281 | 0.316 | 0.316 | 0.316 | 0.316 | 0.316 |
| 1998 | 0.002 | 0.093 | 0.387 | 0.438 | 0.438 | 0.438 | 0.438 | 0.438 |
| 1999 | 0.002 | 0.097 | 0.519 | 0.625 | 0.625 | 0.625 | 0.625 | 0.625 |
| 2000 | 0.002 | 0.069 | 0.204 | 0.236 | 0.236 | 0.236 | 0.236 | 0.236 |
| 2001 | 0.004 | 0.117 | 0.271 | 0.317 | 0.317 | 0.317 | 0.317 | 0.317 |
| 2002 | 0.003 | 0.061 | 0.199 | 0.299 | 0.299 | 0.299 | 0.299 | 0.299 |
| 2003 | 0.003 | 0.059 | 0.139 | 0.249 | 0.249 | 0.249 | 0.249 | 0.249 |
| 2004 | 0.002 | 0.043 | 0.128 | 0.372 | 0.372 | 0.372 | 0.372 | 0.372 |
| 2005 | 0.001 | 0.028 | 0.122 | 0.338 | 0.338 | 0.338 | 0.338 | 0.338 |
| 2006 | 0.001 | 0.025 | 0.112 | 0.264 | 0.264 | 0.264 | 0.264 | 0.264 |
| 2007 | 0.002 | 0.043 | 0.147 | 0.284 | 0.284 | 0.284 | 0.284 | 0.284 |
| 2008 | 0.002 | 0.023 | 0.098 | 0.164 | 0.164 | 0.164 | 0.164 | 0.164 |
| 2009 | 0.002 | 0.017 | 0.048 | 0.069 | 0.069 | 0.069 | 0.069 | 0.069 |
| 2010 | 0.002 | 0.016 | 0.046 | 0.066 | 0.066 | 0.066 | 0.066 | 0.066 |
| 2011 | 0.002 | 0.020 | 0.060 | 0.092 | 0.092 | 0.092 | 0.092 | 0.092 |
| 2012 | 0.001 | 0.010 | 0.035 | 0.060 | 0.060 | 0.060 | 0.060 | 0.060 |
| 2013 | 0.002 | 0.017 | 0.054 | 0.092 | 0.092 | 0.092 | 0.092 | 0.092 |
| 2014 | 0.002 | 0.015 | 0.041 | 0.071 | 0.071 | 0.071 | 0.071 | 0.071 |
| 2015 | 0.002 | 0.015 | 0.040 | 0.077 | 0.077 | 0.077 | 0.077 | 0.077 |
| 2016 | 0.002 | 0.013 | 0.036 | 0.078 | 0.078 | 0.078 | 0.078 | 0.078 |
| 2017 | 0.005 | 0.031 | 0.077 | 0.183 | 0.183 | 0.183 | 0.183 | 0.183 |
| 2018 | 0.008 | 0.041 | 0.080 | 0.156 | 0.156 | 0.156 | 0.156 | 0.156 |
| 2019 | 0.008 | 0.036 | 0.066 | 0.119 | 0.119 | 0.119 | 0.119 | 0.119 |
| 2020 | 0.008 | 0.030 | 0.056 | 0.106 | 0.106 | 0.106 | 0.106 | 0.106 |
| 2021 | 0.006 | 0.028 | 0.059 | 0.111 | 0.111 | 0.111 | 0.111 | 0.111 |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1989 | 0.008 | 0.242 | 0.379 | 0.421 | 0.428 | 0.431 | 0.435 | 0.435 |
| 1990 | 0.009 | 0.159 | 0.212 | 0.229 | 0.232 | 0.233 | 0.235 | 0.235 |
| 1991 | 0.007 | 0.123 | 0.179 | 0.202 | 0.206 | 0.207 | 0.210 | 0.210 |
| 1992 | 0.004 | 0.054 | 0.077 | 0.088 | 0.090 | 0.091 | 0.092 | 0.092 |
| 1993 | 0.012 | 0.132 | 0.181 | 0.207 | 0.211 | 0.213 | 0.215 | 0.215 |
| 1994 | 0.022 | 0.161 | 0.207 | 0.232 | 0.236 | 0.238 | 0.240 | 0.240 |
| 1995 | 0.008 | 0.057 | 0.082 | 0.094 | 0.096 | 0.097 | 0.098 | 0.098 |
| 1996 | 0.007 | 0.046 | 0.077 | 0.091 | 0.094 | 0.095 | 0.097 | 0.097 |
| 1997 | 0.006 | 0.049 | 0.094 | 0.118 | 0.122 | 0.124 | 0.126 | 0.126 |
| 1998 | 0.005 | 0.037 | 0.082 | 0.108 | 0.113 | 0.115 | 0.117 | 0.117 |
| 1999 | 0.013 | 0.076 | 0.132 | 0.164 | 0.171 | 0.173 | 0.176 | 0.176 |
| 2000 | 0.017 | 0.092 | 0.156 | 0.199 | 0.208 | 0.212 | 0.216 | 0.216 |
| 2001 | 0.015 | 0.082 | 0.177 | 0.267 | 0.288 | 0.297 | 0.303 | 0.303 |
| 2002 | 0.016 | 0.076 | 0.169 | 0.288 | 0.321 | 0.335 | 0.345 | 0.345 |
| 2003 | 0.013 | 0.066 | 0.160 | 0.301 | 0.352 | 0.374 | 0.388 | 0.388 |
| 2004 | 0.008 | 0.041 | 0.085 | 0.151 | 0.177 | 0.188 | 0.195 | 0.195 |
| 2005 | 0.016 | 0.078 | 0.161 | 0.284 | 0.339 | 0.362 | 0.377 | 0.377 |
| 2006 | 0.013 | 0.061 | 0.126 | 0.222 | 0.260 | 0.274 | 0.284 | 0.284 |
| 2007 | 0.016 | 0.075 | 0.163 | 0.260 | 0.294 | 0.306 | 0.315 | 0.315 |
| 2008 | 0.015 | 0.068 | 0.154 | 0.274 | 0.318 | 0.333 | 0.343 | 0.343 |
| 2009 | 0.017 | 0.079 | 0.183 | 0.296 | 0.337 | 0.350 | 0.359 | 0.359 |
| 2010 | 0.018 | 0.092 | 0.207 | 0.344 | 0.399 | 0.416 | 0.427 | 0.427 |
| 2011 | 0.010 | 0.050 | 0.104 | 0.185 | 0.227 | 0.240 | 0.248 | 0.248 |
| 2012 | 0.016 | 0.072 | 0.127 | 0.235 | 0.295 | 0.313 | 0.324 | 0.324 |
| 2013 | 0.013 | 0.061 | 0.106 | 0.220 | 0.296 | 0.321 | 0.337 | 0.337 |
| 2014 | 0.011 | 0.053 | 0.090 | 0.195 | 0.271 | 0.297 | 0.314 | 0.314 |
| 2015 | 0.015 | 0.077 | 0.116 | 0.240 | 0.348 | 0.388 | 0.414 | 0.414 |
| 2016 | 0.018 | 0.086 | 0.107 | 0.200 | 0.308 | 0.354 | 0.384 | 0.384 |
| 2017 | 0.016 | 0.082 | 0.094 | 0.172 | 0.324 | 0.421 | 0.491 | 0.491 |
| 2018 | 0.010 | 0.058 | 0.066 | 0.111 | 0.208 | 0.299 | 0.373 | 0.373 |
| 2019 | 0.013 | 0.071 | 0.077 | 0.110 | 0.196 | 0.328 | 0.470 | 0.470 |
| 2020 | 0.012 | 0.070 | 0.077 | 0.097 | 0.152 | 0.276 | 0.455 | 0.455 |
| 2021 | 0.013 | 0.071 | 0.077 | 0.098 | 0.147 | 0.256 | 0.404 | 0.404 |